Is Couche-Tard on the brink of becoming a global giant, or is it driving headfirst into financial peril? Discover the stakes of this beautiful, risky company.
Just finished reading your in depth analysis on $ATD. I really enjoyed your assessment on the risks of this investment. Just one comment on the valuation that you performed. I beleive the valuation exercise is a bit incomplete if you dont consider the cannibalization of shares over the long term. $ATD has really been juicing up the buy backs recently and by the looks of it may continue to do so in future.
Hi Kartik, you're right. With a 14% decline in shares outstanding since 2019, this is a big contribution to your return. Do you think they can continue buybacks when they acquire 7-Eleven and when the fuel transition continues?
absolutely agree with you on that. I feel they kept doing buybacks as they didnt have the right investment candidate but rate of buybacks will surely change with the Seven eleven deal. It may be too premature to predict when they will restart buybacks.
I'm also working on this industry. Do you have any opinion about the sustainability of fuel contribution?? (which has skyrocketed during the last years within the industry)
Considering it is almost certain that the range of EV's will increase and people will charge more at home. I believe fuel station will go trough very tough wheater. Even tough I believe the need for convenience will stay, I foresee a future where a lot of Couche-Tards location will be worth less. In the premium analysis I described three options:
Extremely positive: CT successfully transitions from gas stations to fast-charging stations and acquires a large number of gas stations that struggle to make the switch, becoming the undisputed market leader. As the dominant player, CT may even be able to earn higher margins on electricity than it currently does on gasoline.
Neutral: CT remains the world’s largest convenience store operator but loses 23% to 33% of its net profit, which currently comes from gasoline sales.
Disastrous: Consumers charge their electric vehicles at home, and increased driving range makes on-the-go charging unnecessary. As a result, consumers stop less frequently at convenience stores, leading to a decline not only in fuel revenue but also in store sales.
Just finished reading your in depth analysis on $ATD. I really enjoyed your assessment on the risks of this investment. Just one comment on the valuation that you performed. I beleive the valuation exercise is a bit incomplete if you dont consider the cannibalization of shares over the long term. $ATD has really been juicing up the buy backs recently and by the looks of it may continue to do so in future.
Hi Kartik, you're right. With a 14% decline in shares outstanding since 2019, this is a big contribution to your return. Do you think they can continue buybacks when they acquire 7-Eleven and when the fuel transition continues?
absolutely agree with you on that. I feel they kept doing buybacks as they didnt have the right investment candidate but rate of buybacks will surely change with the Seven eleven deal. It may be too premature to predict when they will restart buybacks.
I'm also working on this industry. Do you have any opinion about the sustainability of fuel contribution?? (which has skyrocketed during the last years within the industry)
Considering it is almost certain that the range of EV's will increase and people will charge more at home. I believe fuel station will go trough very tough wheater. Even tough I believe the need for convenience will stay, I foresee a future where a lot of Couche-Tards location will be worth less. In the premium analysis I described three options:
Extremely positive: CT successfully transitions from gas stations to fast-charging stations and acquires a large number of gas stations that struggle to make the switch, becoming the undisputed market leader. As the dominant player, CT may even be able to earn higher margins on electricity than it currently does on gasoline.
Neutral: CT remains the world’s largest convenience store operator but loses 23% to 33% of its net profit, which currently comes from gasoline sales.
Disastrous: Consumers charge their electric vehicles at home, and increased driving range makes on-the-go charging unnecessary. As a result, consumers stop less frequently at convenience stores, leading to a decline not only in fuel revenue but also in store sales.