Poland's Pledge To Repatriate Conscription-Age Men To Ukraine Could Have Economic Costs (Forbes)
- Beyond ethical considerations, the move could have a significant knock-on effect on the Polish economy as thousands of Ukrainian citizens residing in the country might be forced to leave their jobs and join the army.
- Additionally, there are mounting concerns that a sizable number of them will seek to leave Poland to avoid draft.
- A report by Deloitte for UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, found that Ukrainian refugees contributed 0.7-1.1% to Poland’s GDP in 2023 and estimated the effect would grow to 0.9-1.35% in the long term.
- Most Ukrainians in Poland are employed in sectors such as industrial manufacturing, transport services, and construction, with nearly half of them holding roles that fall below their qualifications.
#2) THESE ARE CONCERNS I HAVE POSTED AS COMMENTS ON OTHER SUBSTACKS COVERING THE STOCK 1) The funds got into Dino Polska early and lately they have been profit taking... 2) Alot of podcasters and Substackers etc have been talking about the stock compared to other so-called EM stocks just as the "smart money" is getting out or taking profits... 3) Its not clear where future growth will come from. At some point, they will have Poland saturated - if not already as they already have one store for every so many Poles (sorry, can't remember the figures I have seen...). Expansion eastward to Russia and Belarus is probably out along with Ukraine given its a war zone rapidly loosing population.... Germany, Czech, Slovakia etc would be completely new markets with probably different retail laws even though they are EU... 4) At some point, the stores will need to be remodelled by somebody e.g. landlord, tenant or Dino if they are the owner... Same with any refrigeration etc equipment as it will need to be replaced - not sure the lifespan of such equipment...
With that said, they do have the right business model when it comes to format size. Here in Malaysia, Speedmart and K.K. no frills smaller format chain stores have saturated every neighbourhood and housing estate selling mostly the shelf stable basics (and it seems like at higher prices than supermarkets!) while Indomaret and Alphamart have done the same in Indonesia (albeit there is still room for growth there given Indonesia's size and they have multiple formats + the latter expanded into the Philippines)... And of course, the USA has its dollar store chains...
I linked to this post in my links post for today: Emerging Market Links + The Week Ahead (May 13, 2024) https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/emerging-markets-week-may-13-2024
#1) I NOTED THIS ARTICLE IN MY POST FOR TODAY:
Poland's Pledge To Repatriate Conscription-Age Men To Ukraine Could Have Economic Costs (Forbes)
- Beyond ethical considerations, the move could have a significant knock-on effect on the Polish economy as thousands of Ukrainian citizens residing in the country might be forced to leave their jobs and join the army.
- Additionally, there are mounting concerns that a sizable number of them will seek to leave Poland to avoid draft.
- A report by Deloitte for UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, found that Ukrainian refugees contributed 0.7-1.1% to Poland’s GDP in 2023 and estimated the effect would grow to 0.9-1.35% in the long term.
- Most Ukrainians in Poland are employed in sectors such as industrial manufacturing, transport services, and construction, with nearly half of them holding roles that fall below their qualifications.
#2) THESE ARE CONCERNS I HAVE POSTED AS COMMENTS ON OTHER SUBSTACKS COVERING THE STOCK 1) The funds got into Dino Polska early and lately they have been profit taking... 2) Alot of podcasters and Substackers etc have been talking about the stock compared to other so-called EM stocks just as the "smart money" is getting out or taking profits... 3) Its not clear where future growth will come from. At some point, they will have Poland saturated - if not already as they already have one store for every so many Poles (sorry, can't remember the figures I have seen...). Expansion eastward to Russia and Belarus is probably out along with Ukraine given its a war zone rapidly loosing population.... Germany, Czech, Slovakia etc would be completely new markets with probably different retail laws even though they are EU... 4) At some point, the stores will need to be remodelled by somebody e.g. landlord, tenant or Dino if they are the owner... Same with any refrigeration etc equipment as it will need to be replaced - not sure the lifespan of such equipment...
With that said, they do have the right business model when it comes to format size. Here in Malaysia, Speedmart and K.K. no frills smaller format chain stores have saturated every neighbourhood and housing estate selling mostly the shelf stable basics (and it seems like at higher prices than supermarkets!) while Indomaret and Alphamart have done the same in Indonesia (albeit there is still room for growth there given Indonesia's size and they have multiple formats + the latter expanded into the Philippines)... And of course, the USA has its dollar store chains...