The New Coca-Cola: Lotus Bakeries

At least, that's what the Belgians claim

Hi,

Coca-Cola is the perfect example of a success story. Founded in 1892, it has become one of the most beloved brands in the world; at least 94% of the global adult population recognizes the brand, and a massive 1.7 billion servings are consumed daily.

The Belgians have found their counterpart to KO 0.00%↑ in Lotus Bakeries. Lotus is a Belgian manufacturer famous for its “Biscoff” cookie. Chances are high that you have eaten one before, or have at least heard of the brand. We’re guilty of eating them too often……

Why, then, are Belgians comparing a company with a 40% market share in non-alcoholic beverages to a niche cookie business?

According to CEO Jan Boone, Lotus is “universally delicious,” meaning you would struggle to find anyone who dislikes it. Few consumable products possess such universal appeal; a substantial portion of supermarket products fail to sell on the other side of the world. Much like Coca-Cola, Lotus has achieved a globally accepted taste. To be honest, I don’t know anyone who doesn’t enjoy a cold Coke.

Cookie Growth

Another similarity between the current Lotus Bakeries and Coca-Cola in its earlier stages is the pace of revenue growth. Lotus has grown at a 17% CAGR from 2010 to 2024. Over the full year of 2024, the Biscoff segment realized net sales of almost €690 million.

The total cookie market grew by a total of 53.8% in the same period, according to an average of several research reports. This translates to a CAGR of 4.4%, which means that Lotus Biscoff has significantly outperformed the broader market.

If we compare Lotus to Coca-Cola when they were about the same size, there are some similarities, but also some major differences. The growth that Coca-Cola went through when they were roughly the same size as Lotus in the early 1970s is comparable, as stated before.

Different Strategy

A big difference is that Coca-Cola was already a world-renowned brand by the early 1970s. U.S. soldiers handed out free Coke bottles to countries that were liberated after the Second World War. By 1988, Coca-Cola was confirmed as the best-known trademark in the world.

The question is: how is it possible that Coca-Cola was more widely known than Lotus while they were about the same size? Well, this has everything to do with a difference in strategies. Coca-Cola’s business model was, and is, more capital-light. They use a bottling strategy, which means that they deliver Coke substrates to bottling companies that distribute them further. Occasionally, Coca-Cola owns these bottling companies themselves.

As you can imagine, with this bottling technique, Coca-Cola needed far less revenue to become widely known across the world. Lotus produces its cookies in-house, which requires more manufacturing capabilities and capital. The difference is important. It allowed Coca-Cola to scale and distribute faster while focusing on its brand and marketing activities.

Pricing Power

Both companies are absolutely focused on marketing. People might not taste too much difference between a Coca-Cola and another cola brand. The branding and the emotional connection a consumer has with a brand create pricing power. At the Albert Heijn, the biggest supermarket chain in the Netherlands, you can buy a package of Lotus Biscoff for €1.99. Their private label brand, which is almost the same cookie, is sold for €0.62. Three times the price for a very similar product; that is what you call pricing power. Great marketing tactics lead to product differentiation here.

Two important questions remain.

1. Are both really universal food or drink products?
   The answer to this question is very subjective. In my environment, I do not know anyone who dislikes the taste of gingerbread, one of the basics for the Biscoff cookie. Moreover, I do not know anyone who doesn’t like a Coke. From my point of view, Lotus’ CEO is right in claiming that the taste is universally accepted. In 2025, Lotus reported that its production capacity couldn’t match worldwide demand. Asia, the U.S., and Europe: all continents love Biscoff.
   

2. How do the TAMs compare?
   According to Fortune Business Insights, the TAM for the global cookie market stands at $44.7 billion. With $800 million in revenue, Lotus’ market share is 1.8%. The company aims to become a consistent top-three cookie company worldwide.
   
   The global market for soft drinks is much bigger, with a $473 billion TAM; over ten times as big as the cookie market.
   
   The options for designing cookies are endless: sugar coatings, double layers, use of chocolate, honey, or cinnamon, combining different best-sellers into one cookie, etc. For soft drinks, the options are more limited. I’d argue that the cookie market is more fragmented. It is harder to get a market share that is comparable to Coca-Cola’s share of over 40%.

The bottom line

We are not convinced that Lotus Bakeries is the next Coca-Cola. They will not reach a market share comparable to Coca-Cola in their respective market. However, there are definitely similarities to discover between the two companies. Coca-Cola managed to grow steadily for decades, and Lotus already has a strong track record as well. Besides, both companies seem to have pricing power due to fantastic marketing practices.

Of course, this is just the tip of the iceberg. In our full deep-dive analysis, we explored Lotus Bakeries in much more detail. Also, we compared it to industry leaders like Mondelez International and Kellanova (previously Kellogg’s).

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Until the next one!