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Emerging Market Skeptic's avatar

I had linked your post in my links collection post last week: Emerging Market Links + The Week Ahead (September 3, 2024) https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/emerging-markets-week-september-3-2024

I've posted my concerns below on other Substack posts covering Dino Polska (I find the Portuguese chain (+Poland & Colombia ops) Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (ELI: JMT / FRA: JEM / OTCMKTS: JRONY / JRONF) to be interesting):

1) The funds got into Dino Polska early and lately they have been profit taking...

2) Alot of podcasters and Substackers etc have been talking about the stock compared to other so-called EM stocks just as the "smart money" was getting out or taking profits...

3) Its not clear where future growth will come from. At some point, they will have Poland saturated - if not already as they already have one store for every so many Poles (sorry, can't remember the figures I have seen...). Expansion eastward to Russia and Belarus is probably out along with Ukraine given its a war zone rapidly loosing population.... Germany, Czech, Slovakia etc would be completely new markets with probably different retail laws even though they are EU...

4) At some point, the stores will need to be remodelled by somebody e.g. landlord, tenant or Dino if they are the owner... Same with any refrigeration etc equipment as it will need to be replaced - not sure the lifespan of such equipment - definitely longer than the junk sold to consumers...

With that said, they do have the right business model when it comes to format size. Here in Malaysia, Speedmart and K.K. no frills smaller format chain stores have saturated every neighbourhood and housing estate selling mostly the shelf stable basics (and it seems like at higher prices than supermarkets!) while Indomaret and Alphamart have done the same in Indonesia (albeit there is still room for growth there given Indonesia's size and they have multiple formats + the latter expanded into the Philippines)... And of course, the USA has its dollar store chains (that are now struggling as lower income people struggle + Temu etc competition)...

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Koen De Leersnijder's avatar

I shared the report, any idea how this will give me access to the premium TDI as mentioned in the article? Would like to read your deep dive on dino

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